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Carrot or Stick? How carbon price pressure will be a key component to tackling the climate crisis
3 March 2021
What we learn about sustainability from the smoking ban
I was recently thinking about the past. How sometimes public opinion and government action can create a real consensus of change. I remember when smoking was allowed in public places—sitting in restaurants and pubs fogged with cigarette smoke. My kids found this inconceivable when I tried to describe it to them. The ban on smoking in public places came into effect in the UK on 1 July 2007. It has been described as the single most important piece of health legislation in a generation.
What allowed such a sweeping change to our habits and beliefs to occur?
I think you can put it into 4 categories: Science, Public Opinion, Government Policy and Price. All of these elements combined have, according to ASH (Action on Smoking and Health), driven smoking numbers down from 45% of adults in 1974 to 15% in 2018.
Let’s consider how these four elements of change will influence the challenge of net zero.
We need carrot and stick to reach net zero
What forces need to combine to lay the foundations of a significant global reduction of carbon emissions? To drive significant change, it's not just one way, it's a number of ways. Let's call it using both the 'carrot and stick'. The global awakening to climate change has been rumbling along for a number of years but we are all aware that within the last twelve months it's gathered into a new pace. 2021 is predicted to be ‘the year of the environment’.
Let’s go back to our four categories:
Science: Billions of dollars has flowed from governments and private sources to fund climate change research. When an issue sees significant uptake by the public and media channels, governments wake up, and there is a cyclical effect with one driving the other.
Public Opinion: We've seen protests in major cities across the world and the rise of protest movements such as Extinction Rebellion. Apocalyptic imagery fuels media coverage, which has even led to a condition called ‘eco-anxiety’. Climate change is ranked as the most important issue of our time by Generation Z.
Government Policy: The UK government’s 2008 Climate Change Act and the secondary legislation passed in 2019 commits business and other organisations to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The UK is currently not on target to meet this goal.
Price: The overlooked category and the one I want to consider. It is a crucial piece of the puzzle.
Price is our stick: how it can drive change in our energy markets
Sometimes the market needs to be driven by purely economics. In the UK we have had a number of carbon taxes/schemes over the years, with two that have had a direct impact on the wholesale price of energy. EU ETS scheme and the Carbon price floor. The first started with an intention of taxing carbon emitting generators and started to do a reasonable job when it was trading at 30 euros a tonne in 2006; but then it crashed because of oversupply and miss calculation, which took the pressure off the energy markets for a number of years. The UK then introduced the carbon floor price in 2013 to make sure the pressure stayed on generators. What inevitably happened was that some of the increases hit customers in the back pocket as the 'tax' filtered into the wholesale commodity markets. But it did succeed because it pushed ‘polluters’ off the grid to be replaced by greener technology—because of pure economics. It was painful, but price pushed change.
This is merely round one, despite carbon prices rising over 70% in the last twelve months. As painful as it may be price will have to rise even further to stimulate the innovation of carbon free technologies and push, not just energy businesses away from carbon emission, but the global population as a whole.
This needs to be a careful balancing act because any change to the price of carbon, as we have seen over the last decade, gets pushed through to consumers as it filters into the electricity price. Forcing electricity prices higher, especially when global economies are under strain and unemployment is on the rise, is not an appetising solution. It’s imperative policy makers create incentives and make sure the vulnerable are protected.
Price does once again need to drive change, with innovators, generators and consumers having a clear view of the future with the opportunities and risks clearly defined.
If you would like to talk about how to effectively manage risks linked to the carbon market price, please give the edenseven team a call.
Pete Nisbet (Managing Partner, edenseven)
A review of Britain's electricity generation over the past four years, including the contributing energy sources, carbon intensity, proportion of zero-carbon sources and further insights.
In December 2024, wind energy accounted for the highest proportion of Britain’s electricity mix among all energy types, contributing 39%. Gas contributed 29%, which was a 3% increase from December 2023. Although wind's contribution was higher than in December 2021 and 2022, it was 2% below the 41% recorded in December 2023. Imports reached their highest level for December in the past four years, supplying 10% of Britain’s electricity mix, which is 3% more than in December 2023. Contributions from biomass, hydro, solar and storage remained stable compared to December 2023, providing 6%, 3%, 1% and 1%, respectively. Nuclear energy saw a 2% decrease in its contributions, delivering 12% of the mix in December 2024, the lowest level for December in the past four years. Coal contributed 0% after its phaseout from Britain's electricity generation in September of the previous year. Zero-carbon sources comprised 56% of Britain's electricity generation, marking the second highest level for December in the last four years; however, 4% lower than for December in the previous year. Despite this decline, the rolling 12-month average for zero-carbon sources was 51%, the highest of the last four years. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in December 2024 was 126 gCO₂/kWh, representing a 3% increase compared to December of the previous year. However, the rolling 12-month average was 125 gCO₂/kWh, indicating a 17% reduction compared to the previous 12-months and the lowest level in four years, reflecting ongoing decarbonisation efforts. Increasing electricity generation from renewable sources is essential for achieving our net-zero goals, ensuring energy security, and reducing reliance on imports.
In November 2024, gas was Britain's primary electricity source, accounting for 38% of the mix, a 7% increase from November 2023. Wind energy contributed 27%, 4% lower than the previous year, marking its lowest November share in four years. Nuclear, biomass, solar, and hydro maintained their contributions from 2023 at 12%, 7%, 2%, and 2%, respectively. Nuclear's share was 4% below November 2021, the lowest in four years. Coal contributed 0% after the closure of the last coal-fired power plant, Ratcliffe, in September, while imports provided 11%, the second-highest November level in four years. Zero-carbon sources made up 42% of Britain's electricity generation, the lowest for November in four years and 5% lower than last year. However, the rolling 12-month average for zero-carbon sources is 51%, the highest in the same period. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in November 2024 was 171 gCO₂/kWh, an increase of 6% from November in the previous year. The rolling 12-month average dropped to 124 gCO₂/kWh, marking a 21% reduction and the lowest level in four years, reflecting ongoing decarbonization efforts. Increasing the electricity generation from renewable sources can help achieve our net-zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
Mawdsleys signs a long-term agreement to use edenseven’s market-leading carbon reporting and management platform, cero.earth, to monitor all emissions and programmes of work to reach net zero . Mawdsleys is the UK’s largest independent pharmaceutical distributor. Established nearly 200 years ago, they have a fast-growing international network supplying medicines to meet patient needs and providing a route to market for manufacturers. Mawdsleys has signed a long term agreement with edenseven to use their carbon accounting and management platform, cero.earth. Built by edenseven, cero.earth is a cloud-based carbon accounting and management platform that provides businesses with a complete view of their emissions and decarbonisation plan. Using a dynamic view of all three emissions scopes, cero.earth provides a clear understanding of the current position against net zero targets and allows for the proactive monitoring of both current and planned projects. With a need to monitor and decarbonise operations at pace, Mawdsleys will leverage cero.earth to assess their current sustainability targets and produce a dynamic delivery plan to eradicate emissions permanently from their supply chain. Pete Nisbet, Managing Partner of edenseven, said: “We continue to evolve cero.earth to make sure we are providing our customers with the tools to dynamically monitor their decarbonisation programmes in a clear and practical manner. We are very excited to be working with Mawdsleys and are certain that, by embedding cero.earth into their net zero deliver plan, we can collectively make significant quantifiable environmental and financial gains.” William Sanders, CEO of Mawdsleys, commented; “Mawdsleys are leading the way in our sector, working towards net zero. Investment into thousands of solar panels and cutting edge battery storage technology, as well as operating electric vehicles, up to and including an HGV, makes edenseven the perfect partner to assist monitoring our decarbonisation plans. Mawdsleys are a key part of the healthcare system, delivering critical medicines to hospitals every day, so utilising cero.earth will help us maintain and enhance our position in the NHS Evergreen benchmarking assessment.”
Thames Freeport is a unique initiative designed to stimulate trade and innovation and transform the lives of people in its region, leveraging global connectivity to over 130 ports in 65 countries. Occupying a strategic position with intermodal capabilities across river, rail, and road, Thames Freeport has recognised its opportunity to achieve social good, and has demonstrated an active commitment to advancing decarbonisation and fostering a circular economy. Thames Freeport is emerging as a hub for clean energy technologies, advanced logistics, and value-added manufacturing. Special Economic Zones (SEZs) such as the Thames Freeport are uniquely positioned to drive decarbonisation. By clustering industries and research institutions, SEZs enable collaboration on sustainable practices and green technology development. This concentration accelerates the adoption of renewable energy sources, smart grids, and circular economy practices.
edenseven are following trends in the renewable energy sector closely, as decarbonising the energy sector is vital for ensuring a sustainable future and achieving Net Zero. Considering the recent DESNZ quarterly update of the renewable energy planning database, we have produced a consolidated summary of projects in the United Kingdom that have received planning permission. We will continue to release updates each quarter. INSIGHT In the past 12 months, the UK granted planning permission for 668 solar PV projects, which will deliver over 3,800 MW of energy capacity. This represents the second-highest number of solar projects approved in a year on a quarterly rolling basis. Additionally, these projects will provide the third-highest energy capacity for Solar PV granted planning permission in the UK in the last 15 years. However, this capacity is 20% lower than that of the 994 projects approved in the preceding year. During the same period, the number of onshore wind projects granted planning permission in the UK increased by 50%, while the number of approved offshore wind projects remained stable compared to the prior 12 months. When considering all solar PV, onshore, and offshore wind projects, granted planning permission in the UK over the past 12 months, the total energy capacity declined by 36% compared to the prior 12 months. Offshore wind saw the sharpest decline, with energy capacity from approved projects falling by 62%, while onshore wind also decreased significantly. Despite the total decline, the average energy capacity of approved solar PV projects rose by 20% year-on-year, highlighting an increase in the size of solar PV projects receiving planning permission in the UK. In contrast, both onshore and offshore wind projects experienced declines in average project capacity—down 51% and 62%, respectively.
In October 2024, wind was the leading source of electricity generation in Britain, accounting for 31% of the electricity mix. Despite this, wind’s contribution was the lowest for any October in the past four years, down 3% from October 2023 and 5% from October 2022. Gas followed closely, contributing 30% to the electricity mix, which, while its second-lowest for October in the past four years, was still 3% higher than in October 2023. Biomass contributions increased by 2%, reaching 8% of the mix, the highest for October in the past four years. Solar energy provided 4% of the mix, up 1% from October 2023. Nuclear and hydro both saw a 1% decrease in their contributions, delivering 13% and 2% of the electricity mix, respectively. Imports remained steady, contributing 11%, the same as in October 2023. October 2024 was notable for having zero coal in Britain’s electricity generation, following the closure of the Ratcliffe power plant, the UK’s last coal-fired station. This is a significant achievement, considering coal has provided electricity in the UK for over 140 years and accounted for nearly 40% of the UK’s electricity generation in 2012. Zero-carbon sources made up 51% of Britain’s electricity generation in October 2024, the lowest for any October in the past four years, but only 1% below the rolling 12-month average of 52%. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in October 2024 was 138gCO₂/kWh, consistent with October 2023. The rolling 12-month average carbon intensity of 123gCO₂/kWh is 22% lower than the previous 12-month period, marking the lowest level in the past four years as the grid continues to decarbonise. Increasing the electricity generation from renewable sources can help achieve our net-zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
PRESS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 3 November 2024 New Report Highlights “Alarmingly Poor” Response of FTSE250 Companies to Climate Crisis 7% rise in carbon emissions as business growth outpaced effective environmental action 41% of businesses do not have a net zero target date 20% of businesses failing to report Scope 3 emissions Average net zero target date extended by 13 months
In September 2024, wind energy was the primary source of Britain’s electricity generation, accounting for 26% of the energy mix, which was its highest contribution for September in the past four years. Gas was the second most prominent source, making up a quarter of the mix, marking its lowest contribution in the past four years and an 8% decrease compared to its contribution in September of the previous year. Nuclear power supplied 16% of Britain’s electricity, which was 1% lower than its contribution in September of the previous year. Both biomass and imports saw a 4% increase in their proportions in Britain’s electricity mix, with biomass contributing 8% and imports delivering 15%, marking the highest contributions of their respective fuel types in the past four years. Coal made its lowest contribution for September in the past four years, accounting for less than 1% of Britain’s electricity mix. Hydro and storage maintained consistent contributions compared to September of the previous year, making up 2% and 1% of the mix, respectively. Zero carbon sources contributed to half of Britain’s electricity in September 2024, marking its highest contribution for September in the past four years and a 1% increase compared to its contribution in September of the previous year. This led to the lowest carbon intensity for September in the past four years, with a 23% decrease compared to the carbon intensity for September 2023. Furthermore, the rolling 12-month average carbon intensity of 123 CO₂/kWh is currently 22% lower than the previous 12-month period, remaining the lowest of the past four years as the grid continues to decarbonise. Increasing the electricity generation from renewable sources can help achieve our net-zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
edenseven are following trends in the renewable energy sector closely, as decarbonising the energy sector is vital for ensuring a sustainable future and achieving Net Zero. Considering the recent DESNZ quarterly update of the renewable energy planning database, we have produced a consolidated summary of projects in the United Kingdom that have received planning permission. We will continue to release updates each quarter. INSIGHT In the last 12 months, the UK approved the second-highest number of Solar PV projects in the past 14 years, with over 3,500 MW of energy capacity to be delivered. This marks the second-highest capacity in 14 years. The UK has granted permission for over 9,000 MW of energy capacity from solar, onshore, and offshore wind projects in the past 12 months, marking the third-highest capacity for any 12-month period in the last 14 years. While the average energy capacity (MW) of the solar PV projects granted planning permission in the UK remained the same as the previous 12 months and onshore wind decreased by 6%, the average energy capacity of offshore wind projects granted planning permission has significantly increased compared to the last 12-month period but remains considerably below its peak.
