Blog Layout
Taking control of the Bull - How to manage commodity exposure in highly volatile markets
7 September 2021
Right now markets are on a bull run
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria” —Sir John Templeton
Global commodity prices react to a myriad of factors: geopolitical tension, supply disruption, economic gloom/boom, a pandemic hitting demand forecasts or positive vaccine plans turning forecasts on their head.
One thing is for certain, the price of a commodity very rarely stays the same day to day or week to week. Something or someone will influence the price up or down. This is what we call market volatility.
Over the last 12 months, many global commodity markets have seen significant rises, or to put it another way, they have gone on a ‘bull run’. For example:
• EU ETS Carbon prices up 168%
• UK Winter 21 Electricity up 170%
• European TTF gas prices up 262%
• Brent Crude up 75%
Forecasters jumped into a positive mood as a number of major global economies began an accelerated vaccine programme. Also, shortages of physical supply in some markets drove prices exponentially up.
Whatever the reasons for this big move, it was sustained and prices across the board remain historically high.
Will investors be buying at these highs?
A common misconception is that at times of historical peaks and troughs there is never going to be someone buying and someone selling.
For example, were there companies buying oil in 2008 at $147 per barrel in the summer of 2008? Answer, absolutely there were. Why? Because either they thought it was going higher (projections suggested over $200 a barrel) or they were hedging it against something else.
Was it a good trade or not? Only the traders buying it or selling it will be able to tell you, based on individual circumstances and how it played out.
Take the current EU ETS carbon price. Is it good value at the current level of 62.31 euros a tonne? Well, it is a higher price for a buyer than it was two weeks ago at 56.54 euros per tonne, and trading at record highs for a seller; but, as we said before, this is only half the story.
Anyone can look at history and tell you what happened, but it’s much harder to forecast what will happen in an uncertain future. Welcome to hindsight trading.
What you can do is forecast what impact certain scenarios have on your business, which will make the overall decision-making process far easier.
Ask yourself when does the price become too painful to handle or too good to be true?
As you start to build this picture you will quickly realise the importance of understanding your unique position. You will realise this isn’t just about ‘playing the markets’ to lock in a commodity price. It’s more than likely to be about a hedge against something else. If one is fixed and one is variable, you need to make sure they are managed in line with each other.
4 rules for your commodity strategy
Below are some examples of why your commodity hedging strategy needs to be aligned to other areas of your business to reduce exposure, not increase it:
- Hedging oil but not foreign exchange rate: If you have an exposure to a commodity like oil, it’s important to manage your exposure to the commodity in a structured manner, especially if you can’t pass this cost on. You also need to be aware that foreign exchange rates are equally volatile, and you need to make sure if you are paying in sterling, you are covering the exchange rate with the dollar. If this is left open, your exposure continues to be open.
- Setting utility rates with your customers but not the underlying commodity. As highlighted above, the commodity markets in the UK energy sector have increased dramatically in the last year. It is imperative any customer contract locked in at a fixed rate is immediately backed off either within a generation or supply portfolio or in the wholesale market. Margins can disappear in an instant, creating a loss-making scenario even before the final contract has arrived in the post.
- Setting a budget for electricity and gas without any headroom. Budgets are critical to the overall performance of your business. As a result, they sometimes take time to agree and finalise. If a ‘provisional’ budget is created without any headroom (capital at risk) against the current commodity market prices, and then it disappears for a month for approval, you are essentially ‘flipping a coin’ whether it will emerge from the process ‘in’ or ‘out’ of money.
- Building a capital investment plan without accurate market data. Markets move all the time, which can create a problem when you are trying to build a business case for a long-term capital investment plan. There are multiple data sets, which can at times can become highly complicated. One point which frequently gets overlooked when assessing a low carbon investment solution is accurate ‘cost mitigation’. How much will this project save from either a carbon or overall utilities spend? If you don’t have an accurate forecast of long-term price projections, history states there will be some incredible solutions that end up on the stakeholder desk ‘gathering dust’ because of inaccurate ROIs.
Taking back control
As we have shown, in the examples above and price inflation over the last year, price hedging is a complicated process, but it doesn’t have to be that way.
Sure, it’s easy to slip into one of two worlds: never knowing you are exposed to volatility before it’s too late; or being paralysed with the fear of making a wrong decision and doing nothing.
However, do it right and you will feel in control of the ‘bull’ or the ‘bear’ (a falling market) and you will be able to make calm and considered decisions which set your business on the right track.
If you would like to talk to the edenseven team on how to manage your exposure to global commodity markets, enabling your organisation to achieve its true potential, please contact us at edenseven.co.uk.
A review of Britain's electricity generation over the past four years, including the contributing energy sources, carbon intensity, proportion of zero-carbon sources and further insights.
In December 2024, wind energy accounted for the highest proportion of Britain’s electricity mix among all energy types, contributing 39%. Gas contributed 29%, which was a 3% increase from December 2023. Although wind's contribution was higher than in December 2021 and 2022, it was 2% below the 41% recorded in December 2023. Imports reached their highest level for December in the past four years, supplying 10% of Britain’s electricity mix, which is 3% more than in December 2023. Contributions from biomass, hydro, solar and storage remained stable compared to December 2023, providing 6%, 3%, 1% and 1%, respectively. Nuclear energy saw a 2% decrease in its contributions, delivering 12% of the mix in December 2024, the lowest level for December in the past four years. Coal contributed 0% after its phaseout from Britain's electricity generation in September of the previous year. Zero-carbon sources comprised 56% of Britain's electricity generation, marking the second highest level for December in the last four years; however, 4% lower than for December in the previous year. Despite this decline, the rolling 12-month average for zero-carbon sources was 51%, the highest of the last four years. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in December 2024 was 126 gCO₂/kWh, representing a 3% increase compared to December of the previous year. However, the rolling 12-month average was 125 gCO₂/kWh, indicating a 17% reduction compared to the previous 12-months and the lowest level in four years, reflecting ongoing decarbonisation efforts. Increasing electricity generation from renewable sources is essential for achieving our net-zero goals, ensuring energy security, and reducing reliance on imports.
In November 2024, gas was Britain's primary electricity source, accounting for 38% of the mix, a 7% increase from November 2023. Wind energy contributed 27%, 4% lower than the previous year, marking its lowest November share in four years. Nuclear, biomass, solar, and hydro maintained their contributions from 2023 at 12%, 7%, 2%, and 2%, respectively. Nuclear's share was 4% below November 2021, the lowest in four years. Coal contributed 0% after the closure of the last coal-fired power plant, Ratcliffe, in September, while imports provided 11%, the second-highest November level in four years. Zero-carbon sources made up 42% of Britain's electricity generation, the lowest for November in four years and 5% lower than last year. However, the rolling 12-month average for zero-carbon sources is 51%, the highest in the same period. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in November 2024 was 171 gCO₂/kWh, an increase of 6% from November in the previous year. The rolling 12-month average dropped to 124 gCO₂/kWh, marking a 21% reduction and the lowest level in four years, reflecting ongoing decarbonization efforts. Increasing the electricity generation from renewable sources can help achieve our net-zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
Mawdsleys signs a long-term agreement to use edenseven’s market-leading carbon reporting and management platform, cero.earth, to monitor all emissions and programmes of work to reach net zero . Mawdsleys is the UK’s largest independent pharmaceutical distributor. Established nearly 200 years ago, they have a fast-growing international network supplying medicines to meet patient needs and providing a route to market for manufacturers. Mawdsleys has signed a long term agreement with edenseven to use their carbon accounting and management platform, cero.earth. Built by edenseven, cero.earth is a cloud-based carbon accounting and management platform that provides businesses with a complete view of their emissions and decarbonisation plan. Using a dynamic view of all three emissions scopes, cero.earth provides a clear understanding of the current position against net zero targets and allows for the proactive monitoring of both current and planned projects. With a need to monitor and decarbonise operations at pace, Mawdsleys will leverage cero.earth to assess their current sustainability targets and produce a dynamic delivery plan to eradicate emissions permanently from their supply chain. Pete Nisbet, Managing Partner of edenseven, said: “We continue to evolve cero.earth to make sure we are providing our customers with the tools to dynamically monitor their decarbonisation programmes in a clear and practical manner. We are very excited to be working with Mawdsleys and are certain that, by embedding cero.earth into their net zero deliver plan, we can collectively make significant quantifiable environmental and financial gains.” William Sanders, CEO of Mawdsleys, commented; “Mawdsleys are leading the way in our sector, working towards net zero. Investment into thousands of solar panels and cutting edge battery storage technology, as well as operating electric vehicles, up to and including an HGV, makes edenseven the perfect partner to assist monitoring our decarbonisation plans. Mawdsleys are a key part of the healthcare system, delivering critical medicines to hospitals every day, so utilising cero.earth will help us maintain and enhance our position in the NHS Evergreen benchmarking assessment.”
Thames Freeport is a unique initiative designed to stimulate trade and innovation and transform the lives of people in its region, leveraging global connectivity to over 130 ports in 65 countries. Occupying a strategic position with intermodal capabilities across river, rail, and road, Thames Freeport has recognised its opportunity to achieve social good, and has demonstrated an active commitment to advancing decarbonisation and fostering a circular economy. Thames Freeport is emerging as a hub for clean energy technologies, advanced logistics, and value-added manufacturing. Special Economic Zones (SEZs) such as the Thames Freeport are uniquely positioned to drive decarbonisation. By clustering industries and research institutions, SEZs enable collaboration on sustainable practices and green technology development. This concentration accelerates the adoption of renewable energy sources, smart grids, and circular economy practices.
edenseven are following trends in the renewable energy sector closely, as decarbonising the energy sector is vital for ensuring a sustainable future and achieving Net Zero. Considering the recent DESNZ quarterly update of the renewable energy planning database, we have produced a consolidated summary of projects in the United Kingdom that have received planning permission. We will continue to release updates each quarter. INSIGHT In the past 12 months, the UK granted planning permission for 668 solar PV projects, which will deliver over 3,800 MW of energy capacity. This represents the second-highest number of solar projects approved in a year on a quarterly rolling basis. Additionally, these projects will provide the third-highest energy capacity for Solar PV granted planning permission in the UK in the last 15 years. However, this capacity is 20% lower than that of the 994 projects approved in the preceding year. During the same period, the number of onshore wind projects granted planning permission in the UK increased by 50%, while the number of approved offshore wind projects remained stable compared to the prior 12 months. When considering all solar PV, onshore, and offshore wind projects, granted planning permission in the UK over the past 12 months, the total energy capacity declined by 36% compared to the prior 12 months. Offshore wind saw the sharpest decline, with energy capacity from approved projects falling by 62%, while onshore wind also decreased significantly. Despite the total decline, the average energy capacity of approved solar PV projects rose by 20% year-on-year, highlighting an increase in the size of solar PV projects receiving planning permission in the UK. In contrast, both onshore and offshore wind projects experienced declines in average project capacity—down 51% and 62%, respectively.
In October 2024, wind was the leading source of electricity generation in Britain, accounting for 31% of the electricity mix. Despite this, wind’s contribution was the lowest for any October in the past four years, down 3% from October 2023 and 5% from October 2022. Gas followed closely, contributing 30% to the electricity mix, which, while its second-lowest for October in the past four years, was still 3% higher than in October 2023. Biomass contributions increased by 2%, reaching 8% of the mix, the highest for October in the past four years. Solar energy provided 4% of the mix, up 1% from October 2023. Nuclear and hydro both saw a 1% decrease in their contributions, delivering 13% and 2% of the electricity mix, respectively. Imports remained steady, contributing 11%, the same as in October 2023. October 2024 was notable for having zero coal in Britain’s electricity generation, following the closure of the Ratcliffe power plant, the UK’s last coal-fired station. This is a significant achievement, considering coal has provided electricity in the UK for over 140 years and accounted for nearly 40% of the UK’s electricity generation in 2012. Zero-carbon sources made up 51% of Britain’s electricity generation in October 2024, the lowest for any October in the past four years, but only 1% below the rolling 12-month average of 52%. The carbon intensity of electricity generation in October 2024 was 138gCO₂/kWh, consistent with October 2023. The rolling 12-month average carbon intensity of 123gCO₂/kWh is 22% lower than the previous 12-month period, marking the lowest level in the past four years as the grid continues to decarbonise. Increasing the electricity generation from renewable sources can help achieve our net-zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
PRESS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 3 November 2024 New Report Highlights “Alarmingly Poor” Response of FTSE250 Companies to Climate Crisis 7% rise in carbon emissions as business growth outpaced effective environmental action 41% of businesses do not have a net zero target date 20% of businesses failing to report Scope 3 emissions Average net zero target date extended by 13 months
In September 2024, wind energy was the primary source of Britain’s electricity generation, accounting for 26% of the energy mix, which was its highest contribution for September in the past four years. Gas was the second most prominent source, making up a quarter of the mix, marking its lowest contribution in the past four years and an 8% decrease compared to its contribution in September of the previous year. Nuclear power supplied 16% of Britain’s electricity, which was 1% lower than its contribution in September of the previous year. Both biomass and imports saw a 4% increase in their proportions in Britain’s electricity mix, with biomass contributing 8% and imports delivering 15%, marking the highest contributions of their respective fuel types in the past four years. Coal made its lowest contribution for September in the past four years, accounting for less than 1% of Britain’s electricity mix. Hydro and storage maintained consistent contributions compared to September of the previous year, making up 2% and 1% of the mix, respectively. Zero carbon sources contributed to half of Britain’s electricity in September 2024, marking its highest contribution for September in the past four years and a 1% increase compared to its contribution in September of the previous year. This led to the lowest carbon intensity for September in the past four years, with a 23% decrease compared to the carbon intensity for September 2023. Furthermore, the rolling 12-month average carbon intensity of 123 CO₂/kWh is currently 22% lower than the previous 12-month period, remaining the lowest of the past four years as the grid continues to decarbonise. Increasing the electricity generation from renewable sources can help achieve our net-zero ambitions, ensure energy security, and decrease reliance on imports.
edenseven are following trends in the renewable energy sector closely, as decarbonising the energy sector is vital for ensuring a sustainable future and achieving Net Zero. Considering the recent DESNZ quarterly update of the renewable energy planning database, we have produced a consolidated summary of projects in the United Kingdom that have received planning permission. We will continue to release updates each quarter. INSIGHT In the last 12 months, the UK approved the second-highest number of Solar PV projects in the past 14 years, with over 3,500 MW of energy capacity to be delivered. This marks the second-highest capacity in 14 years. The UK has granted permission for over 9,000 MW of energy capacity from solar, onshore, and offshore wind projects in the past 12 months, marking the third-highest capacity for any 12-month period in the last 14 years. While the average energy capacity (MW) of the solar PV projects granted planning permission in the UK remained the same as the previous 12 months and onshore wind decreased by 6%, the average energy capacity of offshore wind projects granted planning permission has significantly increased compared to the last 12-month period but remains considerably below its peak.
